AI and the Future of Modern Warfare

Yesterday, I came across a demo of the Palantir Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), which led me to wonder about how AI will be used in warfare. The introduction of AI in warfare is becoming increasingly tangible. Palantir, one of the most secretive companies on earth, was founded by billionaire Peter Thiel, who was also the first investor in Facebook and happens to be a New Zealand citizen. Palantir has already made inroads into the Pentagon, showcasing its Palantir Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) in a recent video demo. The platform aims to integrate large language models (LLMs) such as OpenAI's GPT-4 or Google's BERT into privately-operated networks for military use.

The video demo above illustrates a military operator monitoring the Eastern European theater, discovering enemy forces near the border. The operator relies on the AIP to deploy reconnaissance drones, formulate tactical responses, and organise the jamming of enemy communications. The AIP estimates enemy composition and capabilities, launches a Reaper drone for reconnaissance, and suggests appropriate actions based on the gathered intelligence.

I had to laugh when in the video they referred to Palantir's users as "operators," a term that in a military context is shorthand for bearded special forces of groups like Seal TEAM Six. In Palantir's world, America's elite forces share the same nickname as the keyboard cowboys asking a robot what to do about a Russian tank at the border.

Throughout history, innovation has contributed to a nation's power, with high-tech weapons increasing military might and technology companies creating economic leverage. However, AI is different from past technologies. As AI speeds up development and scientific discoveries, the country with the most advanced AI gains a significant research advantage in all fields, leading to an AI arms race among major powers like the US, China, and Russia.

AI-driven intelligence gathering is already in use by the Ukrainian military, filtering incoming data for relevant information. Smaller, cheaper weapons are shaping modern warfare, with AI supporting the development of small, autonomous vehicles like drones. AI-enhanced decision-making is expected to become an integral part of military operations, making them faster and more efficient.

There are significant dangers associated with AI in warfare. Allowing AI to execute actions without supervision could result in wars being waged without time for diplomacy or rationality. Additionally, if AI becomes the primary decision-maker in warfare, it could become incomprehensible to humans. Overtrust in AI's abilities is another concern, as generals may rely too heavily on AI's judgment.

Today, there is a grey zone of harmful operations, including cyberattacks, disinformation, and sabotage, known as hybrid warfare. AI has lowered the cost of creating information, making high-quality disinformation cheaper than ever. This development presents significant challenges to a country's sovereignty and security without traditional military means.

Palantir's AIP demo showcases the potential capabilities of AI in modern warfare. While AI promises increased efficiency and faster decision-making, there are considerable risks and dangers to consider. Nations must tread cautiously as they develop and implement AI-driven tools in warfare, ensuring a balance between innovation and ethical considerations. This is one of the first use cases that really made me scrutinise the other side of the AI coin.

Jenko

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